Mafia 1988: MGSF Legends

[Null]

Explain to me why Prick is a such a popular candidate right now? What’s the logic?

[Dirty Duck]

I can confirm i'm not the repairman.

It is quite unlikely for every mafia player to pile on Aragorn. That leaves me, BK, Roger, Duck and Prick. I am guessing Roger was delaying the start of day 2 though I haven't checked everyone's activity. If he was mafia they probably would have acted on his behalf. It's not me, BK is dead and Duck is leading the charge. That does leave Prick as the likely lad in the absence of better evidence.

Also Aragorn didn't receive >50% votes before being lynched, that means the man in the caravan was voting for him right?

I just don't get why we think it's unlikely that every mafia would have voted for Aragorn. The fact that you and Duck have both picked up on it kind of shows that it's counter-intuitively the bad thing to do. In a game of induction like this you don't want to do what people will expect you to do and everyone here is very familiar with mafia.

It's not actually been established as a risky meta, is the thing. It hasn't been pointed out like this in every single game, and it has only really come up here due to Aragorn receiving so many of the votes on Day 1 and 1/3 of the non-Aragorn voters being dead already confirming them innocent (Aragorn, BK) meaning there's a small shortlist for Gorn to work with where I think one of them are likely to be mafia-I know I'm not mafia, I believe Agent's reasoning for now, which just leaves you on that side of things. If you're not mafia, Gorn investigates whoever he suspects out of Agent and I (if he also believes that mafia wouldn't have dogpiled him), but for now I can only go on what I think. Sure, you're right. Mafia could have dogpiled on Aragorn and I'm wrong. But too many players play this game in a way where they only follow a suspicion if it's backed up by ability verified info-it slows the game down too much! Some mafia games are played with only one cop, and when they're dead all we have to go on is our hunches. Aragorn is alive and can get us some verified info tomorrow, but until then I'm sticking with my hunch that not all of the mafia voted for him.

It also isn't the best way to find a mafia probabilistically as I've shown so the argument for leaning on that assumption is actually pretty weak. We know for sure there are at least two mafia players among the five that voted for Aragorn and there could be three.

We know for sure there are at least two mafia players among the five? Do we? My assumption was that at least one would vote against the grain, and there are less players to investigate on that side too. You're the one now making statistical assumptions, all I ever said was that there's 3 players left on one side and 5 on the other, and that I don't think mafia all piled in on Gorn on Day 1.

4) Starschwar came in late into voting for Aragorn so it's possible he jumped conveniently onto a lynch train in motion since on day one mafia don't really need to instigate anything

You also didn't instigate anything, if he showed up late and joined a train why does that make him more suspicious than if he showed up earlier and joined a train?

Too zoomer brained to write three quote boxes so I'm going to use numbered points.

1) Yeah the last game was very different and everyone did just obsess over the two lynch trains that occurred. But mafia couldn't spread out the vote because there wasn't really the option to. I think this same suspicion would have been made if the votes were as spread out as they are this time. I genuinely don't think it's the most sensible play for mafia if someone were to think it through.

2) Well I didn't mean to talk with that much certainty but Agent's argument is that you and him are town and I am mafia. There are only three viable people in the non-Aragorn voting group. So if he is right then there has to be two mafia who are voting for Aragorn. And I think even you agree that it is unlikely more than one would have voted for someone against Aragorn. That seems like it would be an insane play from mafia. For that to be true basically you and Agent would have to be mafia in league together and casting suspicion against me which seems unlikely or I and my fellow mafia would have to be at each other's throats. So that means it is likely that there are two mafia in the A

Whether you, me, or Agent are mafia, we'd all have a 50/50 chance of guessing right between the other two if we believe one of us is mafia. Agent trusts me based on my posting, I trust Agent for now based on his reasons for voting Roger. Neither of us know whether the other is actually town or not, but it means we suspect you more than each other.

Anyway, can people actually start voting now because we've already told the mafia two of our roles and I think the prevalent arguments for the day are well established.

[Dirty Duck]

Explain to me why Prick is a such a popular candidate right now? What’s the logic?

It basically boils down to me thinking mafia didn't all bandwagon on the Aragorn lynch:
-Aragorn was proven innocent in death, BK was proven innocent in death, leaving only me, Agent, and Prick who voted for people besides Gorn.
-I've proposed a plan that means Aragorn can gradually investigate everyone and publicise his findings without fear of death by telling The Chef to protect him every night, and have told The Observer to observe Aragorn tonight to learn who The Chef is and subtly protect him from being lynched in the Day phase as an extra layer of protection. For this reason, I'm arguing I'm not mafia.
-Agent voted Roger for being inactive, doesn't necessarily confirm him town but it's something I believe he'd do based on past mafia games and his feelings on how inactives should be dealt with.
-Prick is the one leftover. He joined my Tibbs train on Day One, a safe play which on its own doesn't mean much, but compared to Agent I suspect him more. He's arguing that it's likely mafia would all vote for Aragorn.

[Dirty Duck]

Duck pulling off a galaxy play like this isn’t out of the ordinary

Would be an awful lot of heat to put on myself on Day 2 for no reason though, with very very unclear gains for mafia right now. If I'm lying, we lynch Prick today and then what? I die tomorrow and Mafia are down to 2 members already?

[Annoying Prick]

I am only saying that because I know I am town and I do not suspect you and Agent are mafia. Agent is the most likely between you though. So I think it's more likely that either all the mafia voted Aragorn or one of them is the non-voter I forgot about.

[Null]

Fair enough, I get the logic now. I still think it’s a pretty big assumption to make that Mafia wouldn’t all jump on the Aragorn lynch, especially considering how unserious that whole first day was.

It feels like we’re potentially narrowing the suspect pool based on how we think Mafia ought to behave, rather than anything particularly incriminating that anyone’s actually done.

Not saying Prick is innocent, obviously, but I’m not entirely sold on the reasoning.

[Agent]

We have never explicitly used the logic before that the day one lynch train can't all be mafia. But by now it has become standard that the mafia avoid the bandwagon if they can. If we are guessing between Prick and Roger i'd lean towards the former. I'd like Roy and weavo to post first ideally to check the two role claims aren't contested.

[Dirty Duck]

Fair enough, I get the logic now. I still think it’s a pretty big assumption to make that Mafia wouldn’t all jump on the Aragorn lynch, especially considering how unserious that whole first day was.

It feels like we’re potentially narrowing the suspect pool based on how we think Mafia ought to behave, rather than anything particularly incriminating that anyone’s actually done.

Not saying Prick is innocent, obviously, but I’m not entirely sold on the reasoning.

The suspect pool is narrow for like one day bro in the hopes of nabbing a quick one if the assumption is right, it's not like the logic doesn't also presuppose there's mafia amongst the Gorn voters.

We kill Prick and see what he is, Gorn investigates someone tonight, he tells us the result tomorrow, we consider everything afresh. It's only Day 2.

[Null]

What’s the reasoning you suspect Prick more Agent? Cause honestly just by pure ambiguity Roger seems more sus to me lol, but these are just pure vibes.

[Mr. Tibbs]

We have never explicitly used logic before

This is more like it