Mafia 1988: MGSF Legends

[Annoying Prick]

Yes I could be persuaded very easily to almost anything. I'm just hoping to learn something along the way

Vote Starschwar with me then. Duck sucks and is trying to kill me but I think lynching him at this stage doesn't make sense. Why would the mafia do what he's doing?

[Dirty Duck]

I can confirm i'm not the repairman.

It is quite unlikely for every mafia player to pile on Aragorn. That leaves me, BK, Roger, Duck and Prick. I am guessing Roger was delaying the start of day 2 though I haven't checked everyone's activity. If he was mafia they probably would have acted on his behalf. It's not me, BK is dead and Duck is leading the charge. That does leave Prick as the likely lad in the absence of better evidence.

Also Aragorn didn't receive >50% votes before being lynched, that means the man in the caravan was voting for him right?

I just don't get why we think it's unlikely that every mafia would have voted for Aragorn. The fact that you and Duck have both picked up on it kind of shows that it's counter-intuitively the bad thing to do. In a game of induction like this you don't want to do what people will expect you to do and everyone here is very familiar with mafia.

It's not actually been established as a risky meta, is the thing. It hasn't been pointed out like this in every single game, and it has only really come up here due to Aragorn receiving so many of the votes on Day 1 and 1/3 of the non-Aragorn voters being dead already confirming them innocent (Aragorn, BK) meaning there's a small shortlist for Gorn to work with where I think one of them are likely to be mafia-I know I'm not mafia, I believe Agent's reasoning for now, which just leaves you on that side of things. If you're not mafia, Gorn investigates whoever he suspects out of Agent and I (if he also believes that mafia wouldn't have dogpiled him), but for now I can only go on what I think. Sure, you're right. Mafia could have dogpiled on Aragorn and I'm wrong. But too many players play this game in a way where they only follow a suspicion if it's backed up by ability verified info-it slows the game down too much! Some mafia games are played with only one cop, and when they're dead all we have to go on is our hunches. Aragorn is alive and can get us some verified info tomorrow, but until then I'm sticking with my hunch that not all of the mafia voted for him.

It also isn't the best way to find a mafia probabilistically as I've shown so the argument for leaning on that assumption is actually pretty weak. We know for sure there are at least two mafia players among the five that voted for Aragorn and there could be three.

We know for sure there are at least two mafia players among the five? Do we? My assumption was that at least one would vote against the grain, and there are less players to investigate on that side too. You're the one now making statistical assumptions, all I ever said was that there's 3 players left on one side and 5 on the other, and that I don't think mafia all piled in on Gorn on Day 1.

4) Starschwar came in late into voting for Aragorn so it's possible he jumped conveniently onto a lynch train in motion since on day one mafia don't really need to instigate anything

You also didn't instigate anything, if he showed up late and joined a train why does that make him more suspicious than if he showed up earlier and joined a train?

[Dirty Duck]

Yes I could be persuaded very easily to almost anything. I'm just hoping to learn something along the way

Now that Prick has actually voted it means we learn something if he's mafia.

That's why I wanted him to vote earlier, not to cause backlash from whoever he votes for but so that he's actually pointed the finger rather than just joined a lynch train.

[starschwar]

Well, so much for being subtle!

I'm Roger, The Observer. I used my night ability on Mr. Tibbs. Nobody visited him. Hope that saves my hide. If it doesn't, at least I've provided what little intel I could gather.

[Dirty Duck]

NO. No more role reveals! We don't need to role reveal at the first sniff of someone voting for us! The more roles the mafia know, the easier it is for them to kill The Chef!

[Agent]

edited because 3 posts were made by the time I finished typing

[Dirty Duck]

@Agent



(@starschwar this should convince you, too)

[Mr. Tibbs]

NO. No more role reveals! We don't need to role reveal at the first sniff of someone voting for us! The more roles the mafia know, the easier it is for them to kill The Chef!

Yeah 100% on this. Role revealing on Day 2 is just giving the Mafia an easy hit list

[Annoying Prick]

I can confirm i'm not the repairman.

It is quite unlikely for every mafia player to pile on Aragorn. That leaves me, BK, Roger, Duck and Prick. I am guessing Roger was delaying the start of day 2 though I haven't checked everyone's activity. If he was mafia they probably would have acted on his behalf. It's not me, BK is dead and Duck is leading the charge. That does leave Prick as the likely lad in the absence of better evidence.

Also Aragorn didn't receive >50% votes before being lynched, that means the man in the caravan was voting for him right?

I just don't get why we think it's unlikely that every mafia would have voted for Aragorn. The fact that you and Duck have both picked up on it kind of shows that it's counter-intuitively the bad thing to do. In a game of induction like this you don't want to do what people will expect you to do and everyone here is very familiar with mafia.

It's not actually been established as a risky meta, is the thing. It hasn't been pointed out like this in every single game, and it has only really come up here due to Aragorn receiving so many of the votes on Day 1 and 1/3 of the non-Aragorn voters being dead already confirming them innocent (Aragorn, BK) meaning there's a small shortlist for Gorn to work with where I think one of them are likely to be mafia-I know I'm not mafia, I believe Agent's reasoning for now, which just leaves you on that side of things. If you're not mafia, Gorn investigates whoever he suspects out of Agent and I (if he also believes that mafia wouldn't have dogpiled him), but for now I can only go on what I think. Sure, you're right. Mafia could have dogpiled on Aragorn and I'm wrong. But too many players play this game in a way where they only follow a suspicion if it's backed up by ability verified info-it slows the game down too much! Some mafia games are played with only one cop, and when they're dead all we have to go on is our hunches. Aragorn is alive and can get us some verified info tomorrow, but until then I'm sticking with my hunch that not all of the mafia voted for him.

It also isn't the best way to find a mafia probabilistically as I've shown so the argument for leaning on that assumption is actually pretty weak. We know for sure there are at least two mafia players among the five that voted for Aragorn and there could be three.

We know for sure there are at least two mafia players among the five? Do we? My assumption was that at least one would vote against the grain, and there are less players to investigate on that side too. You're the one now making statistical assumptions, all I ever said was that there's 3 players left on one side and 5 on the other, and that I don't think mafia all piled in on Gorn on Day 1.

4) Starschwar came in late into voting for Aragorn so it's possible he jumped conveniently onto a lynch train in motion since on day one mafia don't really need to instigate anything

You also didn't instigate anything, if he showed up late and joined a train why does that make him more suspicious than if he showed up earlier and joined a train?

Too zoomer brained to write three quote boxes so I'm going to use numbered points.

1) Yeah the last game was very different and everyone did just obsess over the two lynch trains that occurred. But mafia couldn't spread out the vote because there wasn't really the option to. I think this same suspicion would have been made if the votes were as spread out as they are this time. I genuinely don't think it's the most sensible play for mafia if someone were to think it through.

2) Well I didn't mean to talk with that much certainty but Agent's argument is that you and him are town and I am mafia. There are only three viable people in the non-Aragorn voting group. So if he is right then there has to be two mafia who are voting for Aragorn. And I think even you agree that it is unlikely more than one would have voted for someone against Aragorn. That seems like it would be an insane play from mafia. For that to be true basically you and Agent would have to be mafia in league together and casting suspicion against me which seems unlikely or I and my fellow mafia would have to be at each other's throats. So that means it is likely that there are two mafia in the Aragorn voting group.

I did forget about the non-voter admittedly, that makes things difficult. And I didn't mean to say we definitely know, I wrote that while out walking on my phone. But based on your own logic it's likely the case.

I think the most likely situation is that all three mafia voted Aragorn or are the non-voter I forgot about, but even by your own logic it's better odds to vote for an Aragorn lyncher.

But again I'm responding to arguments you made and your own logic. I have to defend myself.

3) Yeah it's my weakest argument of all of them but I think it makes sense alongside everything else I've argued and I do think a mafia is more likely to come in late to a lynch train. It seems like it might feel safer.

If nobody else claims Starschwar's role then I'll have to change my lynch vote.

[Aragorn]

First of all, I must express it is beautiful that this game is now centered around me. My opps could never.

Second of all - correct me if I’m wrong:

Starch is role claiming (no counter)
Tibbs is role claiming (no counter)

Since only BK is dead and they’re confirmed innocent unless we get a counter claim, that brings our townie tally to 3 - correct?

Duck pulling off a galaxy play like this isn’t out of the ordinary, since a lot of his message to BK is basic common sense. But I’m not sure if I feel confident enough to cast a vote