Mafia 1988: MGSF Legends

[Roger]

Hm. Then let's see who dies tonight and who survives. Mafia won't target Aragorn. So best believe someone gonna get merked.

[Dirty Duck]

Hm. Then let's see who dies tonight and who survives. Mafia won't target Aragorn. So best believe someone gonna get merked.

Roger, your posts in mafia often have the vibe of a continuity announcer on a TV channel telling viewers what's coming up next.

We will see who dies tonight and who survives, but to get there we need to wrap up the day phase. Who do you think is suspicious?

[Null]

lol tbh I read that as a call for a no lynch, inadvertently

[Roger]

Oh no, I did not intend for that at all. I'm just saying there isn't anything to vibe off on suspicions. Would dirty duck really go through all that effort to not seem like Mafia? Does Mr Tibbs "plan" seem fishy enough to be a front? Did my inactivity affect the killing? There is too many things to consider that can put anyone to blame.

[Dirty Duck]

Would dirty duck really go through all that effort to not seem like Mafia? Does Mr Tibbs "plan" seem fishy enough to be a front? Did my inactivity affect the killing?

Find out next time on "Mafia 1988"

[Mr. Tibbs]

Waiting around to see who dies is exactly what the mafia wants. We need to take matters into our own hands and just start voting until a pattern emerges

[starschwar]

Afraid that I don't have any intel that would make either of the two leading suspects more or less suspicious. I think there's just too many pieces on the board right now and too little information. We know Aragorn is the heroic ally of the Machines, and therefore beyond reproach. Unless anyone has any revelations, what little I have is just more noise tot he signal. We may have to take another shot in the dark.

[Annoying Prick]

I can confirm i'm not the repairman.

It is quite unlikely for every mafia player to pile on Aragorn. That leaves me, BK, Roger, Duck and Prick. I am guessing Roger was delaying the start of day 2 though I haven't checked everyone's activity. If he was mafia they probably would have acted on his behalf. It's not me, BK is dead and Duck is leading the charge. That does leave Prick as the likely lad in the absence of better evidence.

Also Aragorn didn't receive >50% votes before being lynched, that means the man in the caravan was voting for him right?

I just don't get why we think it's unlikely that every mafia would have voted for Aragorn. The fact that you and Duck have both picked up on it kind of shows that it's counter-intuitively the bad thing to do. In a game of induction like this you don't want to do what people will expect you to do and everyone here is very familiar with mafia.

It also isn't the best way to find a mafia probabilistically as I've shown so the argument for leaning on that assumption is actually pretty weak. We know for sure there are at least two mafia players among the five that voted for Aragorn and there could be three.

So I'm going to Lynch Starschwar.

My reasoning:

1) I find Duck's arguments weird and specious and I don't understand why he has chosen to pick on me in particular but I also can't imagine that mafia would pull a ballsy move and be the first lynch voter like this or particularly want to target me unless they somehow know something

2) As I've said the probability of us lynching a mafia by selecting a random Aragorn lyncher is actually slightly higher and there is a chance all of the non-Aragorn voters are town while there is basically 0% chance that all of the Aragorn voters are town

3) I can't vote for myself and I don't want to die

4) Starschwar came in late into voting for Aragorn so it's possible he jumped conveniently onto a lynch train in motion since on day one mafia don't really need to instigate anything

[Dirty Duck]

Tibbs and I have voted. 8 are left. One of them has a triple vote, meaning as few as 3 more people voting could end the Day Phase.

@Mr. Tibbs can't you be persuaded to join me in lynching Prick? Did my last post not do anything to sway you in regards to The Chef plan being to dissuade mafia from even attempting to kill Gorn while he lives, rather than to just let them kill anyone else?

[Mr. Tibbs]

Yes I could be persuaded very easily to almost anything. I'm just hoping to learn something along the way