Mafia 1988: MGSF Legends

[Aragorn]

To be clear, I was not able to use my ability the night phase that I was killed. So my investigations will begin tonight.

I agree that the day 1 lynch train is hard to devise much info from. Henry was unusually quick on this, but could be chalked up to wanting to get the train moving. I don't think the Mafia would try to over intellectualize a day 1 lynch since the path of least resistance is to vote based off of jokes and momentum.

One thing I find interesting and I need BB's verification here - if Aragorn votes, does the voting screen show the +3? if so, then it's safe to assume that Aragorn did not vote yesterday - since the votes didn't have a +3 spike.

[Dirty Duck]

To be clear, I was not able to use my ability the night phase that I was killed. So my investigations will begin tonight.

I agree that the day 1 lynch train is hard to devise much info from. Henry was unusually quick on this, but could be chalked up to wanting to get the train moving. I don't think the Mafia would try to over intellectualize a day 1 lynch since the path of least resistance is to vote based off of jokes and momentum.

One thing I find interesting and I need BB's verification here - if Aragorn votes, does the voting screen show the +3? if so, then it's safe to assume that Aragorn did not vote yesterday - since the votes didn't have a +3 spike.

I felt similarly but Null acted exactly the same last game and was town (let's use usernames to avoid confusion in an already confusing setup LOL).

I see your logic, you're thinking Roger might be The Man In The Caravan, but it won't show until the hammer happens. Until a person they voted for is lynched, we have no idea if they voted or not.

[Aragorn]

Roger's the only non-voter, no? if that is true, and BB confirms that it would reflect in the voting screen - then he is confirmed to be innocent too. Unless i'm missing something.

[Dirty Duck]

Roger's the only non-voter, no? if that is true, and BB confirms that it would reflect in the voting screen - then he is confirmed to be innocent too. Unless i'm missing something.

That's not how the ability works, I asked bb yesterday as I wondered the same.

[bigboss88]

To be clear, I was not able to use my ability the night phase that I was killed. So my investigations will begin tonight.

I agree that the day 1 lynch train is hard to devise much info from. Henry was unusually quick on this, but could be chalked up to wanting to get the train moving. I don't think the Mafia would try to over intellectualize a day 1 lynch since the path of least resistance is to vote based off of jokes and momentum.

One thing I find interesting and I need BB's verification here - if Aragorn votes, does the voting screen show the +3? if so, then it's safe to assume that Aragorn did not vote yesterday - since the votes didn't have a +3 spike.

I’m not gonna reveal if he voted or not, but let’s say for the sake of the question that he did. His vote will count as a normal vote until the lynching happens. It’s until then that I will reveal who got the majority of votes.

[Annoying Prick]

Since I'm still alive and have voting power I'm going to Lynch Annoying Prick unless anyone has anything else to go on, but that would only really happen if the observer visited BK last night.

B-but... we're friends 

The reason I voted Tibbs is because during the last game two big lynch mobs formed on two players and this became the means for really dubious speculation even though both players were town. It was also used to target me. I thought that voting for Tibbs instead of Aragorn would make it seem more random and like nobody in particular was being targeted. There couldn't be accusations of "starting a lynch train."

I also don't think it actually would be the optimal play from mafia to spread out their vote because, as you've proven, it's what you'd expect. All of them voting Aragorn seems intuitively sub-optimal but that's why in a game like this it's justifiable. Also if anyone up for being lynched in day one was mafia then they could be desperate to prevent that. So I still think it could easily go either way and they wouldn't be noobs for making either decision.

[Dirty Duck]

Since I'm still alive and have voting power I'm going to Lynch Annoying Prick unless anyone has anything else to go on, but that would only really happen if the observer visited BK last night.

B-but... we're friends 

Your point that it could go either way is fair, sure. But Aragorn has less people to work through on the side that didn't vote him, especially with BK now being dead. If, as you say, mafia decided it was less suspicious to pile in on Gorn then he has 5 people to work through of near equal suspicion rather than 3. It's just statistically easier to check one option over the other, and we're now in a Follow The Cop scenario where Gorn can just weed them out over time so long as The Chef lives.

But thinking about it the decision needs to be left up to Gorn and not publicised absolutely as The New Admin can disguise a Mafia member, but only once per game. For that reason I do think we should lynch you now where I think you're most suspicious (in the scenario where mafia spread their votes), and so investigating you tonight would give the mafia the chance to disguise you unless they expect Gorn to be a wild card and investigate someone left field (which as we all know from last game, is very possible lol).

After tonight The Observer should know who The Chef is, which adds another layer of protection to have another townie secretly on their side to try and prevent them getting lynched without resorting to role claiming, as that would mean death for the Chef.

[Roger]

From what I gathered, Aragorn should be protected. However, now that means Mafia will kill anyone else now that the main focus of Aragorn. So one death, in exchange for potential information. Being eager to lynch this early in the game isn't always an indicator of Mafia. Hard to say who will be picked to be killed. But I say, the abilities roles should definitely be used sooner than later.

[Mr. Tibbs]

Good message and plan. I fully agree it would be really upsetting for whoever revived Aragorn to see him just instantly die the next night

Edit: this was supposed to be a reply to Ducks hypothetical death message

[Annoying Prick]

Your point that it could go either way is fair, sure. But Aragorn has less people to work through on the side that didn't vote him, especially with BK now being dead. If, as you say, mafia decided it was less suspicious to pile in on Gorn then he has 5 people to work through of near equal suspicion rather than 3. It's just statistically easier to check one option over the other, and we're now in a Follow The Cop scenario where Gorn can just weed them out over time so long as The Chef lives.

It's only the better option mathematically if we assume there are two mafia players but there seem to be three by the number of roles. If there are three it's probably worse. I'm not good at maths but if 2 mafia voted for Aragorn then that's 2 out of 5 which is a 40% chance of getting a mafia. If only 1 mafia voted against Aragorn then that's 1 out of 3 which is about 33%. So it probably makes more sense to target an Aragorn lynch voter unless my basic maths is wrong, which I wouldn't put past me.

EDIT: Although in reality there's barely anything between it so I'm not saying we definitely should lynch an Aragorn lyncher. But this is on the assumption that they did spread out their votes, I don't think it's a given at all or most likely.