Blood on the Clocktower

[Jassassino]

All in all it's really still up in the air. I say if today isn't a hit, then we just move down the list with Agent and Null.

Let's move down that list!
Yes to Agent

Spoiler:

Watch this be an absolutely fucking Galaxy Brain play from Demon King Null and his Mad Minion Max

[Agent]

If we get it wrong today we lose.

I apologise.  I've probably worded this wrong somewhere and not corrected it but I'll explain here. The win condition for the Imp is to get to the last two, just them and a townsfolk. There are six left, if you execute one tonight and it's wrong and the imp strikes then there's 4 left. The game is still going.

When you get to the final 4 with the imp still in play and you execute and get it wrong then it's mostly likely game over because there's 3 left and why wouldn't the Imp kill in the night to win? Which is why when it gets to the last 4, most games I've been in decide not to execute as you have better odds picking from 3 than 4 no matter how certain you are. 

Sorry if that last paragraph comes across as backseat gaming but that is genuinely mentioned every game I've been in that's got to that position.

I want to clarify the win condition here. If Aragorn was innocent (he isn't), it's 2v2 and only dead player's votes could save us right? Since alive players can't reach a majority, the day would end in no lynch and demons would win the following day. 

Let's go over the possibilities again. 

1) Aragorn was the demon. Duck was the scarlet woman and is now the demon. Nobody has been poisoned to their knowledge, nobody has detected a spy and the baron isn't in play as everyone has claimed a role. Overwhelmingly likely. 

2) I have master baited you all and i'm the demon.

3) I've made an error somewhere and should KMS. 

I was going to suggest killing me anyway to alay your doubts but I think that loses the game. Please don't fuck this up. Dead people, don't use your vote yet until we're clear on what we're doing. I'm still at work. If we lose this from here i'll remind you of it until the end of time.

[Dirty Duck]

Suddenly the "Null is the demon" possibility that Agent previously stated as second most likely has disappeared since Agent now needs Null's vote to squirm out of this one.

[Jassassino]

I would like to draw to your attention to the fact that we are now in the final 4. If you choose to execute today, and you get it wrong, and the Demon kills tonight then there will only be the demon and one townsfolk left meaning the evil team wins. Think very carefully about your nominations and voting in today's phase.

I was just downloading Reel Fishing: The Great Outdoors when I was also thinking about the numbers, may be worth to not execute today (I know, that's extremely unlike me and my approach to Mafia lol), as we'll force the Demon to kill an innocent, there's no other roles with immediate kill abilities, and we'll all have dead votes.

For that reason, No to Agent. 

I imagine it'll be myself killed off this phase, so it'll be between Duck, Agent and Null, but still - we could be surprised.

[Aragorn]

Evidence is completely and utterly stacked against him, I do not see the value in giving him another day and night cycle to weasel out of this.

[Dirty Duck]

I would like to draw to your attention to the fact that we are now in the final 4. If you choose to execute today, and you get it wrong, and the Demon kills tonight then there will only be the demon and one townsfolk left meaning the evil team wins. Think very carefully about your nominations and voting in today's phase.

I was just downloading Reel Fishing: The Great Outdoors when I was also thinking about the numbers, may be worth to not execute today (I know, that's extremely unlike me and my approach to Mafia lol), as we'll force the Demon to kill an innocent, there's no other roles with immediate kill abilities, and we'll all have dead votes.

For that reason, No to Agent. 

I imagine it'll be myself killed off this phase, so it'll be between Duck, Agent and Null, but still - we could be surprised.

I understand this as a safe play in a normal 4 player scenario but you're probably right that you'll be the one killed since I'm saying Agent is the Demon, and Agent is saying I've become the Demon, so us dying wouldn't make sense, and Null can't be killed. You know you're not the Demon, and none of the living players suspect you of being the Demon either, so removing yourself from the equation doesn't actually change anyones suspicions, it'll just be exactly the same situation on Day 4 surely?

[Jassassino]

I would like to draw to your attention to the fact that we are now in the final 4. If you choose to execute today, and you get it wrong, and the Demon kills tonight then there will only be the demon and one townsfolk left meaning the evil team wins. Think very carefully about your nominations and voting in today's phase.

I was just downloading Reel Fishing: The Great Outdoors when I was also thinking about the numbers, may be worth to not execute today (I know, that's extremely unlike me and my approach to Mafia lol), as we'll force the Demon to kill an innocent, there's no other roles with immediate kill abilities, and we'll all have dead votes.

For that reason, No to Agent. 

I imagine it'll be myself killed off this phase, so it'll be between Duck, Agent and Null, but still - we could be surprised.

I understand this as a safe play in a normal 4 player scenario but you're probably right that you'll be the one killed since I'm saying Agent is the Demon, and Agent is saying I've become the Demon, so us dying wouldn't make sense, and Null can't be killed. You know you're not the Demon, and none of the living players suspect you of being the Demon either, so removing yourself from the equation doesn't actually change anyones suspicions, it'll just be exactly the same situation on Day 4 surely?

If you're telling the truth about your role claim, you will be able to verify the validity of your Demon find last night. You have one good player that registers falsely to you - scan myself and Null, if you have another hit, or if there's no hit, then it helps us to whittle it down further. The player may have already died - so this is a good way of being 100% sure

[Agent]

Suddenly the "Null is the demon" possibility that Agent previously stated as second most likely has disappeared since Agent now needs Null's vote to squirm out of this one.

I'm the empath, my new neighbours are Jass and Null who I can confirm don't register as evil. 

New plan just dropped, I think we're fine. Null can't be killed at night. Duck has committed to appealing to Jass and accusing me with his fake role claim. If we no lynch, only Jass can be killed at night. If this happens and the game doesn't end, Null will know it's not me. 

They will instead opt to kill no one, leaving us in the same scenario as today.

If you think I am demonic, give me a coherent, viable theory as to who my partner is that explains everyone's actions. If such a theory exists I won't hold it against you if you make the wrong call, but I don't believe it exists.

[Dirty Duck]

I would like to draw to your attention to the fact that we are now in the final 4. If you choose to execute today, and you get it wrong, and the Demon kills tonight then there will only be the demon and one townsfolk left meaning the evil team wins. Think very carefully about your nominations and voting in today's phase.

I was just downloading Reel Fishing: The Great Outdoors when I was also thinking about the numbers, may be worth to not execute today (I know, that's extremely unlike me and my approach to Mafia lol), as we'll force the Demon to kill an innocent, there's no other roles with immediate kill abilities, and we'll all have dead votes.

For that reason, No to Agent. 

I imagine it'll be myself killed off this phase, so it'll be between Duck, Agent and Null, but still - we could be surprised.

I understand this as a safe play in a normal 4 player scenario but you're probably right that you'll be the one killed since I'm saying Agent is the Demon, and Agent is saying I've become the Demon, so us dying wouldn't make sense, and Null can't be killed. You know you're not the Demon, and none of the living players suspect you of being the Demon either, so removing yourself from the equation doesn't actually change anyones suspicions, it'll just be exactly the same situation on Day 4 surely?

If you're telling the truth about your role claim, you will be able to verify the validity of your Demon find last night. You have one good player that registers falsely to you - scan myself and Null, if you have another hit, or if there's no hit, then it helps us to whittle it down further. The player may have already died - so this is a good way of being 100% sure

Okay that's a fair reason, but bear in mind from where I'm stood I have already investigated both you and Null. Is this on the assumption that Null could be the Scarlet Woman?

@Wayno would I be able to investigate Null and Jass even if one of them were dead? Doesn't say anywhere I can't investigate dead players but doesn't hurt to make sure.

Suddenly the "Null is the demon" possibility that Agent previously stated as second most likely has disappeared since Agent now needs Null's vote to squirm out of this one.

I'm the empath, my new neighbours are Jass and Null who I can confirm don't register as evil. 

New plan just dropped, I think we're fine. Null can't be killed at night. Duck has committed to appealing to Jass and accusing me with his fake role claim. If we no lynch, only Jass can be killed at night. If this happens and the game doesn't end, Null will know it's not me. 

They will instead opt to kill no one, leaving us in the same scenario as today.

If you think I am demonic, give me a coherent, viable theory as to who my partner is that explains everyone's actions. If such a theory exists I won't hold it against you if you make the wrong call, but I don't believe it exists.

Why would Jass dying imply you're not the Demon to Null? Like, at all? Just because you've said it would just now?

And give me one good reason starschwar couldn't have been your partner? You even said yourself he would make the most sense, you really hammered it home. His being dead doesn't disprove that, because him being alive doesn't help you win, it's more important to muddy what you yourself had been citing as the most likely evil pair if you were Demon, after your Aragorn Demon theory was disproven by the game continuing. You always said it was either him or Jass, but Jass didn't make as much sense as your ally with how he was playing.

[Null]

I don’t think no-executing helps us much here. 

If Jass dies tonight, we’re basically in the quagmire tomorrow, which is essentially Agent vs Duck. 

Let's keep it as simple as possible. Duck's fortune teller info is obviously the pivotal point. Providing Jass is indeed Buffy, then Agent's credibility almost evaporates.

Agent’s Scarlet women theory is possible, but is it likely? Not really. A lot of moving parts. A lot of mess. 

Yes to Agent.