Mafia 1988: MGSF Legends

[Dirty Duck]

I can confirm i'm not the repairman.

It is quite unlikely for every mafia player to pile on Aragorn. That leaves me, BK, Roger, Duck and Prick. I am guessing Roger was delaying the start of day 2 though I haven't checked everyone's activity. If he was mafia they probably would have acted on his behalf. It's not me, BK is dead and Duck is leading the charge. That does leave Prick as the likely lad in the absence of better evidence.

Also Aragorn didn't receive >50% votes before being lynched, that means the man in the caravan was voting for him right?

I just don't get why we think it's unlikely that every mafia would have voted for Aragorn. The fact that you and Duck have both picked up on it kind of shows that it's counter-intuitively the bad thing to do. In a game of induction like this you don't want to do what people will expect you to do and everyone here is very familiar with mafia.

It's not actually been established as a risky meta, is the thing. It hasn't been pointed out like this in every single game, and it has only really come up here due to Aragorn receiving so many of the votes on Day 1 and 1/3 of the non-Aragorn voters being dead already confirming them innocent (Aragorn, BK) meaning there's a small shortlist for Gorn to work with where I think one of them are likely to be mafia-I know I'm not mafia, I believe Agent's reasoning for now, which just leaves you on that side of things. If you're not mafia, Gorn investigates whoever he suspects out of Agent and I (if he also believes that mafia wouldn't have dogpiled him), but for now I can only go on what I think. Sure, you're right. Mafia could have dogpiled on Aragorn and I'm wrong. But too many players play this game in a way where they only follow a suspicion if it's backed up by ability verified info-it slows the game down too much! Some mafia games are played with only one cop, and when they're dead all we have to go on is our hunches. Aragorn is alive and can get us some verified info tomorrow, but until then I'm sticking with my hunch that not all of the mafia voted for him.

It also isn't the best way to find a mafia probabilistically as I've shown so the argument for leaning on that assumption is actually pretty weak. We know for sure there are at least two mafia players among the five that voted for Aragorn and there could be three.

We know for sure there are at least two mafia players among the five? Do we? My assumption was that at least one would vote against the grain, and there are less players to investigate on that side too. You're the one now making statistical assumptions, all I ever said was that there's 3 players left on one side and 5 on the other, and that I don't think mafia all piled in on Gorn on Day 1.

4) Starschwar came in late into voting for Aragorn so it's possible he jumped conveniently onto a lynch train in motion since on day one mafia don't really need to instigate anything

You also didn't instigate anything, if he showed up late and joined a train why does that make him more suspicious than if he showed up earlier and joined a train?