Mafia 1988: MGSF Legends

[Annoying Prick]

I can confirm i'm not the repairman.

It is quite unlikely for every mafia player to pile on Aragorn. That leaves me, BK, Roger, Duck and Prick. I am guessing Roger was delaying the start of day 2 though I haven't checked everyone's activity. If he was mafia they probably would have acted on his behalf. It's not me, BK is dead and Duck is leading the charge. That does leave Prick as the likely lad in the absence of better evidence.

Also Aragorn didn't receive >50% votes before being lynched, that means the man in the caravan was voting for him right?

I just don't get why we think it's unlikely that every mafia would have voted for Aragorn. The fact that you and Duck have both picked up on it kind of shows that it's counter-intuitively the bad thing to do. In a game of induction like this you don't want to do what people will expect you to do and everyone here is very familiar with mafia.

It also isn't the best way to find a mafia probabilistically as I've shown so the argument for leaning on that assumption is actually pretty weak. We know for sure there are at least two mafia players among the five that voted for Aragorn and there could be three.

So I'm going to Lynch Starschwar.

My reasoning:

1) I find Duck's arguments weird and specious and I don't understand why he has chosen to pick on me in particular but I also can't imagine that mafia would pull a ballsy move and be the first lynch voter like this or particularly want to target me unless they somehow know something

2) As I've said the probability of us lynching a mafia by selecting a random Aragorn lyncher is actually slightly higher and there is a chance all of the non-Aragorn voters are town while there is basically 0% chance that all of the Aragorn voters are town

3) I can't vote for myself and I don't want to die

4) Starschwar came in late into voting for Aragorn so it's possible he jumped conveniently onto a lynch train in motion since on day one mafia don't really need to instigate anything