Mafia 1988: MGSF Legends

[Dirty Duck]

Kinda curious at that swing at Duck from Tibbs, what's the thinking?

Curious about that myself. He was into the post with the plan before, maybe he thought I was coming down too hard and lost faith but I do think it was quite sudden.

[weavo]

I've been out all day but following on my phone, haven't had time to write anything. I think Duck's suggested approach is generally sound, though I worry that reading too much into day 1 lynches is falling into the same trap we got into last time. (Also around the question of who lynched Aragorn lol.)

Though I have to say, claiming town on the basis of a dead player who if they were messaging randomly would have had a 1/3 chance of hitting mafia anyway (meaning no one contradicting the message thing doesn't prove much), plus a hypothetical death that didn't actually happen, is fairly convenient. I agree it would be 5head for mafia to play like that... but if the mafia thinking is go big or go home, I could see it working. Especially as it draws a lot of attention to duck for now, while the other two mafia can keep their heads down and crack on. More so if they did actually all vote for Aragorn in the first round, which he would know if he was mafia. So......

On the other hand, Tibbs randomly accusing him with no reasoning is pretty rogue, and could also be a mafia play looking to distract from something else. So I'm open to hearing both sides for the time being.

[Mr. Tibbs]

I have already done my part for the town so I'll cast a vote for no reason. Aragorn is confirmed town. BK is dead. Day 1 lynch behavior is essentially random.

Lynch Dirty Duck

It would be a pretty galaxy brained mafia play to kick off day 2 by immediately instructing town to protect the investigative role every single night and for the observer role to learn who the chef is by observing the investigative role the night he's protected, and to also say that the pool of players to investigate is the people who voted the way I did. The idea could be that I do it to gain favour amongst townies, or to change the focus to the pool of players that I, as mafia, know is all townies besides me. But, if I did do that, why would I throw it all away by trying to lynch Prick instead of taking a step back after proposing the plan and letting Aragorn waste his ability investigating townies? Why draw attention to myself by arguing lynching Prick makes sense, if I'd just proposed the strongest town tactic just to make myself look innocent? If Prick is lynched and is a townie, I lose everything I gained by making life harder for the mafia by proposing we Follow The Cop?

Also, just to confirm, you're claiming The Repairman? No need to be subtle about it if you're soft claiming anyway, Mafia aren't likely to kill a spent town role when they need The Chef dead as soon as possible.

Yes it would be galaxy brained. And no I'm not soft claiming. Always fully hard

I do have a reason for this but explaining it will defeat the purpose so I'll save it for a bit

[Dirty Duck]

I see no reason why The Repairman wouldn't counter you if you were lying so unless that happens I believe you.

So you just think I'm doing a convoluted play on Day 2 to get Prick killed, basically?

[Mr. Tibbs]

No my thinking is mostly centered around it being a play to make sure the mafia can kill anyone else but Aragorn without worrying about Mr. Tibbs keeping them too well fed.

I'll go into more detail once more people have weighed in. It's pretty shaky to say the least but it's exciting

[Dirty Duck]

No my thinking is mostly centered around it being a play to make sure the mafia can kill anyone else but Aragorn without worrying about Mr. Tibbs keeping them too well fed.

I'll go into more detail once more people have weighed in. It's pretty shaky to say the least but it's exciting

But Gorn is the power role, and is objectively the most useful townie. Plus, The Chef can do what they want in actuality-the publicly proposed plan to protect Aragorn every night is enough to make mafia not want to try to kill him while The Chef lives. We've all played enough MGS to understand deterrence as a concept! (I'm sure MPO+ must touch on it somewhere?)

I think mafia telling town to protect the cop just to remove the 1/9 odds of The Chef protecting who they target wouldn't exactly be galaxy brained.

[Agent]

I can confirm i'm not the repairman.

It is quite unlikely for every mafia player to pile on Aragorn. That leaves me, BK, Roger, Duck and Prick. I am guessing Roger was delaying the start of day 2 though I haven't checked everyone's activity. If he was mafia they probably would have acted on his behalf. It's not me, BK is dead and Duck is leading the charge. That does leave Prick as the likely lad in the absence of better evidence.

Also Aragorn didn't receive >50% votes before being lynched, that means the man in the caravan was voting for him right?

[Roger]

I have no idea what the actual DUCK is going on here. It feels like we are going to get another random lynching to occur as well. I feel like if Duck was Mafia, than he is doing everything he can to potentially annoy his team mates. If Tibbs is mafia, again. Than this is an interesting play to seem like a townie. Maybe the simplest solution here is to just pick someone and hopefully we choose correctly.

[Dirty Duck]

Also Aragorn didn't receive >50% votes before being lynched, that means the man in the caravan was voting for him right?

bb confirmed that that's not how it works. I think he ended the day phase early due to Roger's absence and Aragorn clearly being the frontrunner.

[Dirty Duck]

Though I have to say, claiming town on the basis of a dead player who if they were messaging randomly would have had a 1/3 chance of hitting mafia anyway (meaning no one contradicting the message thing doesn't prove much), plus a hypothetical death that didn't actually happen, is fairly convenient.

I've not claimed town via that, I even said so in my post. I've included myself in the tallies of people left suspect if you buy into the idea that one mafia member would have voted someone besides Gorn, not Roger as he didn't vote. Gorn can investigate me if he sees fit, but I do think needlessly putting the spotlight on a shortlist of three people I'm a part of wouldn't be a clever play for mafia. I've put Prick forward as my suspect, but in the end it's down to Aragorn's..uhh...expert deduction skills?