MGF Mafia 3: The Woodsboro Murders

[bigboss88]

So after a long 30 minutes read of the previous game, I finally know how you had to wear that red dress for the whole game @black king . You have my sympathies. But there are a lot of similarities between this game and the previous one:-
1. Day 1 ended with a no lynch snd it was suggested by mafia. Both bk and Agent voted for no lynch.
2. They both were at each other’s throats and are now.

Something I don’t expect to happen. I don’t think he would choose the same mafia member two games in row (or did he?! 🤔). This time I think it’s you bk for one rational reason: in that game, you were the one who won the game for town. In this one however, you don’t even know that Aragorn was a confirmed townie! So that makes you even more suspicious in my eyes now. The tactics used in this game make me really think the mafia is being led by someone who really was paying attention in the last game.

I know these are two different games and I shouldn’t be playing this game based on another game. But the similarities are too close to be a coincidence.

[starschwar]

I was going to try and analyze the current situation, but someone went and stoked the fires of my Matrix nostalgia. The Woman in Red's canonical name is Scarlet. She was repurposed from being a lewd program to... a tutorial. She taught people how to open their inventories, change their shoes, and to take keys from draws and hand them to people. They can make you learn Kung Fu at the push of a button, but rudimentary tasks like that require her as a gatekeeper for some reason.

I have the audio files (of course I do). Tempted to edit them together and upload them.

Anyway, I want to hear more opinions before I weigh in. It's what Agent Gray would have recommended.

[Aragorn]

I wonder what Agent thinks about all this.

And yeah my understanding is this confirms Aragorn is a (trigger happy) townie

I think we need some answers Agent doesn't have right now. There's genuinely not much I can say with certainty in this setup. Giving Aragorn a gun was always likely to go like this too. Unless anyone wants to share night info I broadly agree with bb88 and i'll vote for the most logical candidate.

Lynch BK

There is a demon inside of me and it calls for the trigger.

I’m town. I’m confident bb88 is. The barrel got us some facts.

[Annoying Prick]

Why would he be mafia? Doesn't this confirm he is town? I can only see one role that has such a power and they are town.

And if he is town I think that makes it much more likely that Bigbos88 is too since he was so intent on defending Aragorn and wanted to draw attention to the no lynchers instead of even Null, another town.

Here’s the thing. I was dead on lynching you the second I see “Day 3 begins” because you were the only who voted Aragorn and almost started a campaign to lynch him. After this post, I’m on the fence that Annoying Prick most likely a townie or a mafia who is in a difficult situation for being the only one who voted Aragorn on day 2.

I wasn't trying to start a campagin to lynch him. I actually explicitly said that I thought the evidence against him was non-existent and that I wasn't for lynching anyone in particular and would be willing to choose a no lyncher if that would create the least suspicion. I was just aware that we were going around in circles talking about the same two people and no new evidence was going to present itself so we had to make a decision, something even Duck acknowledged in his message at the end of the day. I actually think my willingness to be the first lyncher in that situation makes me less likely to be mafia. Everyone already had their sights set on two people that they would have known are both town and being the first person to cast a lynch vote can make you a target. The better play for them was sitting out of it and letting a town start the lynch mob and thus make themselves into a target the next day.

Anyway I think you and Aragorn are innocent and I will vote alongside you.

Lynch black king.

[Dirty Duck]

3 votes for black king. 1 vote for Agent.

6 left to vote.

[weavo]

Honestly I was totally convinced that Null was mafia and that BB88 was covering for him. Obviously that isn't true, so Aragorn randomly killing Null has made some progress in popping the 'lynching Aragorn was a co-ordinated mafia effort' theory. Mea culpa for getting the wrong end of the stick.

Anyway, we now have Aragorn confirmed town, BB88 seeming likely to be town, and I'm pretty confident Agent is town too from how he's been playing. I don't have any particular reason to suspect Black King, but the people going after him seem to be doing so in good faith and killing him keeps the game moving, so...

Lynch Black King

[bigboss88]

Why would he be mafia? Doesn't this confirm he is town? I can only see one role that has such a power and they are town.

And if he is town I think that makes it much more likely that Bigbos88 is too since he was so intent on defending Aragorn and wanted to draw attention to the no lynchers instead of even Null, another town.

Here’s the thing. I was dead on lynching you the second I see “Day 3 begins” because you were the only who voted Aragorn and almost started a campaign to lynch him. After this post, I’m on the fence that Annoying Prick most likely a townie or a mafia who is in a difficult situation for being the only one who voted Aragorn on day 2.

I wasn't trying to start a campagin to lynch him. I actually explicitly said that I thought the evidence against him was non-existent and that I wasn't for lynching anyone in particular and would be willing to choose a no lyncher if that would create the least suspicion. I was just aware that we were going around in circles talking about the same two people and no new evidence was going to present itself so we had to make a decision, something even Duck acknowledged in his message at the end of the day. I actually think my willingness to be the first lyncher in that situation makes me less likely to be mafia. Everyone already had their sights set on two people that they would have known are both town and being the first person to cast a lynch vote can make you a target. The better play for them was sitting out of it and letting a town start the lynch mob and thus make themselves into a target the next day.

Anyway I think you and Aragorn are innocent and I will vote alongside you.

Lynch black king.

Right. I guess this is a good explanation tbh. Anyway, it’s bound to be bk or Agent. No doubt about it. So if we are wrong about bk (and that’s a big if), it has to be Agent. So, I’m announcing this, if it’s not bk, everyone go for Agent on day 4 if I’m dead or alive. Aragorn be one me so you could witness who kills me. Deputy whoever you are check Agent if we are wrong just in case, please. If we are right about bk, don’t bother with Agent as he’s practically a confirmed town. I think this sounds like a good plan. If Aragorn is on me, they can’t plant the disguise on Agent because whoever tries to kill me is screwed.

And I really can’t express how relieved I am for finally getting somewhere with this! 🤣

[weavo]

Why would he be mafia? Doesn't this confirm he is town? I can only see one role that has such a power and they are town.

And if he is town I think that makes it much more likely that Bigbos88 is too since he was so intent on defending Aragorn and wanted to draw attention to the no lynchers instead of even Null, another town.

Here’s the thing. I was dead on lynching you the second I see “Day 3 begins” because you were the only who voted Aragorn and almost started a campaign to lynch him. After this post, I’m on the fence that Annoying Prick most likely a townie or a mafia who is in a difficult situation for being the only one who voted Aragorn on day 2.

I wasn't trying to start a campagin to lynch him. I actually explicitly said that I thought the evidence against him was non-existent and that I wasn't for lynching anyone in particular and would be willing to choose a no lyncher if that would create the least suspicion. I was just aware that we were going around in circles talking about the same two people and no new evidence was going to present itself so we had to make a decision, something even Duck acknowledged in his message at the end of the day. I actually think my willingness to be the first lyncher in that situation makes me less likely to be mafia. Everyone already had their sights set on two people that they would have known are both town and being the first person to cast a lynch vote can make you a target. The better play for them was sitting out of it and letting a town start the lynch mob and thus make themselves into a target the next day.

Anyway I think you and Aragorn are innocent and I will vote alongside you.

Lynch black king.

Right. I guess this is a good explanation tbh. Anyway, it’s bound to be bk or Agent. No doubt about it. So if we are wrong about bk (and that’s a big if), it has to be Agent. So, I’m announcing this, if it’s not bk, everyone go for Agent on day 4 if I’m dead or alive. Aragorn be one me so you could witness who kills me. Deputy whoever you are check Agent if we are wrong just in case, please. If we are right about bk, don’t bother with Agent as he’s practically a confirmed town. I think this sounds like a good plan. If Aragorn is on me, they can’t plant the disguise on Agent because whoever tries to kill me is screwed.

And I really can’t express how relieved I am for finally getting somewhere with this! 🤣

Kind of a sidebar but how useful do you think the sheriff/deputy roles actually are given the costume hiding mechanic? Since they can only tell who has the costume, not who is the killer/accomplice.

I've been trying to think through how likely the killer is to have stashed the costume on someone else at this stage in the game. It seems like they'd have to worry about being seen by the final girl and the reporter, right? And we started with 13 players, so assuming all of the promised roles were handed out and none were repeated, we must be dealing with one killer and one accomplice (though that's just an assumption and could be faulty). If that's the case, the killers would have a roughly 2/11 chance of being spotted for their first kill (slightly less given they could have chosen to stay with/watch the same person), with the odds increasing since then as non-final girl non-reporter townsfolk have been killed. At what point does the risk of being spotted outweigh the benefit of neutralising the sheriff/deputy role?

The fact Aragorn is confirmed as final girl also means mafia could have been targetting him in round 1, if he chose to stay with Jass, though I don't know what that adds to the theorycrafting around the night 1 kill. Probably not much.

[weavo]

Oh wait Jass was the reporter so the odds are better for the killer than I thought. General sentiment stands, however.

[bigboss88]

The sheriff/deputy is only useful if the mafia are afraid of getting exposed. At this point, with two confirmed townies being on each other backs, if they target Aragorn while he’s with me and decide to plant the disguise on Agent, I’ll be dead and Aragorn will see who killed me. So they won’t plant it on anyone tonight unless they wanna gamble being discovered. If I was the deputy I wouldn’t bother checking Agent if bk is mafia or not. If bk is mafia, Agent is most likely a confirmed town. If bk is town, Agent is 100% mafia. As simple as that. The master plan here is for Aragorn to be on any confirmed town ass and the deputy checking everyone while mafia goes for the confirmed town. I also have a tactic that 100% reveal who’s mafia and who’s not depending on something. I will reveal that tactic on day 4. I have a way that will ensure that tactic would be revealed even ic I was to die on night 3. @weavo

Yeah, if Jass was alive this game would have been a lot easier to win.